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Exports Drive Recovery as Trade Risks Loom
Although the import sector in China also rebounded, December saw a renewed vigor in export trade, albeit with the possible reasons being rushed shipments by factories in expectation of increased trade tensions under the Trump administration.
According to customs data released on Monday, outbound shipments increased 10.7% year-on-year in December, beating the anticipated 7.3% and topping November’s 6.7% rise. Meanwhile, imports saw growth of 1.0%, the best since July 2024 and contrary to forecasts for a 1.5% contraction.
(China’s Exports and Imports Chart, Source: CGAC)
Exports have remained one of the backbones of the $18-trillion Chinese economy for a long time, which is still grappling with a prolonged property-market slump and grim consumer sentiment. Recent policy interventions have helped calm growth and put the economy back on track to meet its “around 5%” growth target for 2025. Rising challenges including U.S. tariff hikes cast uncertainty on the writing on the wall.
Donald Trump, President-elect of the United States and set to return to office next week, has called for heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, raising concern about a resurgence in trade conflicts between the two biggest economies in the world. A further worry is added to this over dispute with the European Union, which has imposed tariffs as high as 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles. Such measures might fail China by killing off its attempts to expand its automotive exports and alleviate pressures for deflation caused by overcapacity.
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