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U.S. Stocks Fall Amid Election and Interest Rate Uncertainty
TOPICSTags: Harris, Interest Rate, Trump, US Stocks
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) slipped 0.02% to 42,924.89, the S&P 500 edged down 0.05% to 5,851.19, while the Nasdaq Composite (NDX) rose 0.11% to 20,383.65. The benchmark S&P 500 and the Dow finished lower in volatile trading, pressured by losses in industrials, materials, and utilities stocks. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq closed higher as investors absorbed corporate earnings from companies across various sectors of the U.S. economy.
(S&P 500 Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
(Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Price Chart, Source: Trading View)
This market movement is primarily driven by uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. election and expectations for interest rate cuts. As Trump’s chances of winning the election have improved, markets are pricing in higher inflation expectations, given that his core policy agenda is more inflationary compared to Harris’ policy framework.
Additionally, according to the CME’s Fed Watch tool, markets are now assigning an 89.6% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting, with a 10.4% chance that rates will remain unchanged. A month ago, the market was fully pricing in at least a 25-basis point cut, with a 50.4% probability of a 50-basis point reduction.
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