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On Monday, Russia’s central bank is expected to raise the key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 20%, the same level as at the onset of what Russia refers to as a “special military operation” in Ukraine, according to most analysts surveyed by Reuters.
(Central Bank of Russia Interest Rate Decision, Source: Investing.com)
Officials from the central bank stated that certain parts of the draft budget came as a surprise. Meanwhile, inflation expectations among Russian households for the year ahead rose to 13.4% in October, up from 12.5% in September. These expectations, which the central bank considers as important a gauge as actual inflation, have been steadily rising since April, with a slight dip only in September. They are now at their highest level since the beginning of the year.
The central bank, which forecasts inflation at 7.7% by the end of the year, is also facing pressure from influential businessmen who argue that high rates are damaging the economy. However, analysts believe such pressure will not sway the regulator. “At present, its mandate remains strong, especially after the country’s leadership, having faced a shock even greater than those in 2014 and 2020, has once again recognized its capacity to ensure stability,” said Oleg Kuzmin from Renaissance Capital.
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