Comprehensive AUD/USD for November 10, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the AUD/USD for 10th November 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• RBA raised interest rates: The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% on Tuesday. Since the market had already expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates, the previous appreciation of the Australian dollar had already factored in this information. Subsequently, Bullock hinted that the obstacles to further tightening of policy have increased, causing the Australian dollar to fall. 
• The RBA is not strong: In fact, the market is pricing in not only an interest rate hike by the RBA in November, but also another interest rate hike in this cycle. But subsequent RBA statements failed to confirm this hawkish stance, instead taking a data-reliant approach to assessing the need for further tightening. 

AUD/USD Technical Analysis 

AUD/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: After the indicator issued a short signal, it went all the way down. The short-term trend of the Australian dollar was confirmed to be depreciation. It is worth noting that it is close to the 50 mid-line, so be wary of a rebound or reversal. 
• Moving average combination: The exchange rate fell below the moving support formed by the 33-day and 65-day moving average combination. After the exchange rate closed below the 33-day moving average yesterday, the probability of the market continuing to decline increased. 
• Downward trend line: On November 1, the exchange rate broke through the downward trend line, and today it stepped back on the trend line. If there is any stop signal, the exchange rate still has the possibility of reversing upward. 

AUD/USD 4-hour Chart Analysis

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator is not currently oversold, and there is a certain bottom divergence pattern in line with the market, suggesting that the current downward space is limited, and may enter an adjustment or even rebound next. 
• Fibonacci retracement level: Yesterday, the exchange rate fell rapidly to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Usually, such a rapid decline close to the resistance area has a certain probability of rebound. 

Ultima Markets MT4 Pivot Indicator

• According to the pivot indicator in Ultima Markets MT4, the central price of the day is established at 0.63814, 
• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 0.63814, first target 0.63991, second target 0.64461; 
• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 0.63814, first target 0.63344, second target 0.63167. 

Conclusion