Weekly Market Outlook (April 7th – April 11th)

Last week, the market was focused on “Liberation Day,” the day Trump announced his comprehensive tariff plan. This event caused significant market volatility. Safe-haven assets like gold surged to a record high of $3,167 before pulling back. At the same time, the U.S. stock market and the U.S. Dollar both declined, reacting negatively to growing trade uncertainty.

Week Ahead: U.S. Inflation in Focus

After the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and unemployment data, the focus now shifts to U.S. inflation figures. These will be important for understanding the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Additionally, central bank decisions will also be in focus this week. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its rate decision on Wednesday, and RBA Governor Michele Bullock will speak on Thursday.

1. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – April 10th

The CPI measures inflation and is a key indicator for investors to understand the U.S. economy and how the Federal Reserve might adjust its policy. The last CPI report showed a slowdown in inflation. If this trend continues, investors may increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates at the June meeting, which could put further pressure on the U.S. Dollar.

At the same time, the data will give investors a chance to assess the health of the U.S. economy, which remains uncertain amid the impact of Trump’s trade policies.

2. U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) – April 11th

The PPI measures inflation at the producer level. Markets will be looking to see if Trump’s tariffs are increasing producer costs. This could be a sign of future inflation at the consumer level.

3. RBNZ Rate Decision – April 10th

In its last meeting, the RBNZ cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% to boost economic activity. The market expects another 25 basis point cut, but it’s uncertain whether this will be the last. Any change in policy will likely impact the New Zealand Dollar.

Market Outlook: Investors Look for Clarity

Overall, investors will be looking for more clues about how the U.S. economy is holding up under the Trump administration’s tariff policies.

Beyond the U.S., markets will also be watching how other major economies perform and how they might respond to Trump’s trade measures. Upcoming economic data will be key in shaping those expectations and guiding market direction.