Russia-Ukraine Conflict May Escalate, but Crude Oil Rebound Could Pause

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the WTI OIL for NOV 22, 2024. 

Key Takeaways 

• Geopolitics supports oil prices: The Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia used intercontinental ballistic missiles for the first time during the conflict, and Putin said that the Russian army tested a new medium-range hypersonic missile in the operation against Ukraine, which could reach a speed of Mach 10 and could not be intercepted. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both closed higher as the market worried that the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would affect crude oil supply. 

• China’s demand supports oil prices: If the escalation of the conflict is curbed, the market focus may return to expectations for China’s oil demand. China’s oil demand has recovered, and crude oil imports are expected to reach near-record levels by the end of this month, which may contribute to more optimistic market sentiment. 

WTI OIL Technical Analysis 

WTI OIL Daily Chart Insights 

(USOIL Daily Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Downward trend line: Oil prices rose rapidly yesterday and approached the downward trend line. In theory, there is short-term selling pressure on oil prices. However, if oil prices effectively break through resistance today, they will continue to rebound next week and look towards the high point of November 7. 

• Price Action: Monday’s strong rise clarified the bearish engulfing of price behavior, which is a strong reversal signal. After two days of volatility, yesterday’s closing line broke through the volatility range, so oil prices are still expected to continue to rebound during the Asian session, but whether they can continue to rise depends on the price behavior during the European and US sessions. 

WTI OIL 1-hour Chart Analysis 

(USOIL H1 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets MT4) 

• Stochastic oscillator: The indicator sent a bullish signal during the Asian session, and there is still a probability of continued rise in the short term. It is worth noting that oil prices are about to break through yesterday’s high, but the indicator has not yet entered the overbought area, so be alert to the formation of a reversal pattern of top divergence. 

• Wolfe Wave: A Wolfe wave pattern is about to form on the 1-hour chart of WTI crude oil. The extended line connecting points 1 and 3 is the short-term high resistance level of oil prices. If a bearish price behavior occurs at that time, the first target of oil prices will be the horizontal price of point 4 at 69.584, and the second target will be the extended line between points 1 and 4. 

WTI OIL Pivot Indicator 

(USOIL M30 Price Chart, Source: Ultima Markets APP) 

• According to the trading central in Ultima Markets APP, the central price of the day is established at 69.45, 

• Bullish Scenario: Bullish sentiment prevails above 69.45, first target 70.70, second target 71.25; 

• Bearish Outlook: In a bearish scenario below 69.45, first target 68.85, second target 68.50. 

Conclusion 

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