Ultima Markets

Retail sales in the United States remained flat in April 2024, showing no change from the previous month. This followed a downwardly revised gain of 0.6% in March and defied market expectations of a 0.4% rise, suggesting consumer spending has slightly eased.  

Out of the 13 categories tracked, 7 posted declines. Significant drops were seen in sales at nonstore retailers (-1.2%), sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores (-0.9%), motor vehicle and parts dealers (-0.8%), and furniture stores (-0.5%). On the other hand, sales increased at gasoline stations (3.1%), clothing stores (1.6%), and electronics and appliance stores (1.5%).  

(Retail Sales MoM%，US Census Bureau) 

In April 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US saw a 0.3% rise from the previous month, which was a slight dip from the 0.4% increase in the preceding two months and also fell short of the anticipated 0.4% rise. The cost of housing rose by 0.4%, while gasoline prices escalated sharply by 2.8%. Together, housing and gasoline were responsible for more than 70% of the CPI’s monthly upsurge. Food prices, on the other hand, remained unchanged. There were price upticks in several areas, including motor vehicle insurance, which grew by 1.8%, medical care increased by 0.4%, and apparel went up by 1.2%. Conversely, there was a decline in prices for used cars and trucks, which fell by 1.4%, household furnishings, and operations, which decreased by 0.5%, and new vehicles, which dropped by 0.4%. 

The annual inflation rate in the United States eased to 3.4%, down from 3.5% in March. The March figure was the highest reading since September, and the April rate of 3.4% was in line with market forecasts. 

(CPI MoM%，US Bureau of Labor Statistics) 

The annual Core CPI in the US, which strips out highly fluctuating costs such as food and energy, decreased to a three-year low of 3.6% in April 2024. This downshift from the previous month’s 3.8% rate aligns with expert predictions. The housing expenses, responsible for more than two-thirds of the total year-over-year rise in the index excluding food and energy, grew by 5.5% in April, a slight decrease from March’s 5.7% hike. Significant annual increases were also recorded in motor vehicle insurance (up by 22.6%), medical care (up by 2.6%), personal care (up by 3.7%), and recreational activities (up by 1.5%). For the month, core consumer prices went up by 0.3% in April, marking a slower growth compared to the 0.4% rises in March and February, which met the market projections. 

(Core CPI YoY%，US Bureau of Labor Statistics) 

Wednesday saw a rally in the U.S. stock market, with all three major averages closing at record highs, following the release of softer-than-expected CPI readings. The S&P 500 gained 1.17%, settling above 5,308.15 for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 349.89 points (+0.88%), while the Nasdaq climbed 1.4% higher. 

(S&P500 Index Yearly Chart) 

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