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On Wednesday, the AUD/USD pair surged past 0.6800 level, marking its 8-month high. This was mainly due to the year-over-year CPI data rose by 3.5% in July, easing from 3.8% in June and surpassing expectations of 3.4%.
(Australia CPI y/y Data, Source: Forex Factory)
As a result, this stronger-than-anticipated data prompted markets to slightly reduce the likelihood of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November, now estimated at 48.4% compared to 58% prior.
However, the July inflation figures could be somewhat misleading. While the data suggests significant progress in combating inflation, part of the improvement is attributed to rebates that artificially lowered electricity costs.
Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at the National Australia Bank, noted that the July report reveals limited further progress in reducing goods inflation. Despite this, markets are still fully pricing in a rate cut this year, partly due to the Federal Reserve’s near-certain move to ease policy next month, with additional cuts expected in Canada, Europe, and New Zealand.
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