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CPI Data Align with Expectations
On Wednesday, the consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, same as the expectation of 0.3%, also marking the largest gain since April. The U.S dollar strengthened after CPI data came in line with forecasts, U.S dollar index rising 0.23% to close at 106.62.
(U.S Dollar Index Chart, Source: Trading View)
While inflation remains elevated, there are some positive signs. Rents, a typically stubborn component of inflation, increased at the slowest pace in nearly three and a half years. Additionally, the rise in motor vehicle insurance costs, another problematic category, slowed down. These factors contributed to a slower increase in services inflation. A sustained cooling trend in inflation would be positive, although potential tariffs from the incoming administration could pose risks.
The CPI data has reinforced market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The probability of a quarter-point rate cut on December 18th has climbed to over 94%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The market is highly confident that the Fed will follow through with the rate cut, as it’s rare for the central bank to deviate from such strong market expectations.
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