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The dollar index continued its downward trajectory, dipping below 104, as a stream of disappointing economic figures out of the US and comments from certain central bank officials impacted investors.  

The US manufacturing industry, as revealed by the latest PMI survey from the ISM, has been shrinking for the 16th month in a row in February, and more rapidly than anticipated, marking this as the longest such period in 22 years. Simultaneously, the Michigan consumer survey’s final reading for February displayed a weaker-than-predicted sentiment, with both current conditions and future expectations faltering.  

Meanwhile, the NY Fed President Williams anticipates a rate cut later this year by the central bank, whereas Richmond Fed President Barkin believes it’s too early to make assumptions regarding the start of rate reductions, noting that the economy is still experiencing pricing pressures. Furthermore, Chicago Fed Bank President Goolsbee is worried about the unexpected brisk rate of price pressures, especially within housing inflation. 

(U.S. Dollar Index Six-month Chart) 

The dollar’s slide downward creates favorable conditions for precious metals and commodities to rally. On Friday, the price of gold surpassed $2,080 per ounce, reaching a new record high and positioning the precious metal for its second straight weekly increase.  

Meanwhile, WTI crude futures climbed to approximately $80 per barrel, marking a four-month high. The upsurge is partly attributed to anticipations that OPEC+ will prolong their reduction in supplies, coupled with enduring instability in the Middle East. The forthcoming OPEC+ conference in March garners significant attention, as it’s expected that producers will continue adhering to elective production restrictions until no earlier than the Ministerial Meeting in June, to maintain market steadiness. 

(Gold One-year Chart) 

(WTI Crude One-year Chart) 

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